- August 28, 2025
India’s Q1 FY26 GDP Data To Be Out Tomorrow: Here’s What Analysts Expect
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India’s Q1 FY2025-26 GDP is expected to grow 6.5 to 7 percent, with SBI, ICRA, HDFC Bank, Barclays, Nomura, and RBI offering similar projections amid easing inflation.
Q1 FY26 GDP Growth Data.
India’s gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released tomorrow, August 28, by the National Statistics Office (NSO). According to most analysts, the country’s GDP is likely to have grown in the range of 6.5% to 7% during the first quarter of the current financial year (Q1 FY2025-26).
State Bank of India (SBI) estimates the economic growth at 6.8-7%, ratings agency ICRA expects it at 6.7%, private sector lender HDFC Bank sees GDP expanding at 6.6%, Barclays pegs it at 6.5%, and Nomura projects it at 6.6%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projected real GDP growth at 6.5 per cent for Q1.
The Indian economy had grown at 6.7% in the first quarter of the last fiscal 2024-25, and at 7.4% in the previous quarter (Q1 FY26).
“Price and inflationary pressures eased across major product groups, including food products, non-food items and expenses related to housing,” SBI said in its report.
The impulse response of government capital expenditure to its own structural shock demonstrates strong persistence, it said, adding that the estimated response exhibits an immediate positive jump, followed by short-term oscillations, and subsequently converges to a stable positive level.
Public capital expenditure is not a transitory or noise-driven component of fiscal policy, but a persistent driver reinforcing its role as a structurally sustainable element in the expenditure composition, the report added.
On GVA, SBI said that based on the estimated model, it obtains a nowcast of real GDP growth at 6.9% (GVA: 6.5%) year-on-year for the reference quarter (Q1 FY26). “This estimate reflects the systematic contribution of the latent factor to the observed series and is therefore not driven by idiosyncratic fluctuations in individual indicators. The forecast is statistically consistent with the trajectory inferred from previous quarters, as the factor dynamics ensure temporal persistence and smooth adjustment, thereby anchoring the current projection within the medium-run growth path suggested by the model.”
Rating agency ICRA in its report said India’s GDP growth projection is at 6.7 per cent in the first quarter of the current financial year, which is higher than the RBI’s estimate of 6.5 per cent.
The rating agency also said the growth in gross value added (GVA) is expected to ease to 6.4 per cent in Q1 FY2026 from 6.8 per cent in Q4 FY2025. The slowdown in the industrial sector and agriculture is likely to offset the strong performance of the services sector.
Industrial growth is estimated to fall to 4.0 per cent in Q1 FY2026 from 6.5 per cent in the previous quarter, while agriculture growth is projected at 4.5 per cent compared with 5.4 per cent earlier. On the other hand, services are set to rise to an eight-quarter high of 8.3 per cent, up from 7.3 per cent, according to ICRA.
Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to personal finance, markets, economy and companies. Having over a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris h…Read More
Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to personal finance, markets, economy and companies. Having over a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris h… Read More
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