- October 23, 2026
Will US Gas Prices Fall Below $4 A Gallon Before Midterms? Analysts Have A Short Answer: ‘No’
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The average price of petrol in the US has reached $4.27 a gallon, up nearly $1.30, or 43%, since the Iran war began in February.
Gas prices are displayed at a station on October 15, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Getty Images via AFP)
US petrol prices are unlikely to fall below $4 a gallon before the November 3 midterm elections, as the war in Iran and wider regional conflict continue to disrupt fuel supplies and put pressure on drivers.
The average price of petrol in the US has reached $4.27 a gallon, up nearly $1.30, or 43%, since the Iran war began in February, according to AAA data cited by ABC News.
Energy analysts told ABC News that prices are unlikely to ease significantly before voters head to the polls, leaving motorists facing continued pressure on household budgets.
Middle East Conflict Keeps Prices High
The ongoing conflict has damaged energy infrastructure and raised transport costs, while restrictions on Russian fuel exports linked to the Russia-Ukraine war have added to supply concerns.
Brent crude, a global oil benchmark, climbed above $112 a barrel on Thursday, marking a rise of nearly 60% since the Iran war began.
Tom Seng, a professor of energy finance at Texas Christian University, told ABC News that the situation offered little sign of relief before the elections.
“It’s weeks before the election and we’ve got a ramp up of what’s happening in the Middle East, as opposed to some type of calming and a sign energy prices are coming down,” he said.
Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s petroleum analyst, was equally firm in his outlook. “Gasoline will not fall below $4/gal prior to the midterms,” he wrote on X.
Why Relief May Take Time
Even if tensions ease and crude oil prices decline, petrol prices may take longer to respond. Refineries must repair damaged facilities, while retailers need time to sell fuel bought at higher prices.
Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Dow Jones Energy, told ABC News that supplies of refined fuels remained disrupted despite improvements in crude oil exports.
“If prices are going up in one place, the chances are they will pull up prices in another place,” he said.
There may be some seasonal relief as cooler weather reduces travel demand and refineries switch to cheaper winter fuel blends.
However, Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a petroleum engineering professor at the University of Houston, said prices generally decline slowly.
“It’s usually a pretty slow downward trajectory for gas prices,” Krishnamoorti said.
Meanwhile, Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Dow Jones Energy, also pointed to continued disruptions in refined fuel supplies despite improvements in crude oil exports from the Middle East.
“Short answer: No,” Cinquegrana said when asked whether petrol prices could drop below the $4 mark by Election Day.
Quick Answers
Ask News18The average price of petrol in the US has reached $4.27 a gallon, which is an increase of nearly $1.30 or 43% since the Iran war started in February.
Ask News18United States of America (USA)
October 23, 2026, 05:11 IST
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