- May 2, 2026
Nifty Prediction For Monday, May 4: Markets Await West Bengal Polls Verdict; Know Key Resistance, Support Levels
Last Updated:
The most immediate catalyst next week will be the election outcomes, with investors closely watching whether the BJP can wrest West Bengal from the Trinamool Congress.
Nifty Prediction For Monday, May 4.
Nifty Prediction For Monday, May 4: Indian equity markets are expected to enter the new week on a positive note, as indicated by the Gift Nifty that closed around 80 points higher on Friday. However, experts caution that the broader trend remains fragile, with the sustainability of gains hinging on crude oil prices, geopolitical developments, institutional flows, and Assembly election results.
After a volatile and range-bound week, the Nifty 50 continues to hover around the crucial 24,000 mark, a zone that has emerged as a key battleground between bulls and bears.
Hariprasad K, Sebi-registered research analyst and founder of Livelong Wealth, said, “The most immediate catalyst will be the outcome of key state elections, with investors closely watching whether the ruling party at the Centre can wrest West Bengal from the Trinamool Congress and make meaningful inroads into opposition-ruled Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where the Bharatiya Janata Party currently has a limited presence.”
Gap-Up Opening Signals Strength, But Risks Remain
Hariprasad said markets are poised for a strong start, with Gift Nifty suggesting a gap-up on Monday.
He noted that while the initial momentum is supported by strength in US markets, the real test will be whether markets can hold gains amid multiple triggers, including election outcomes, crude oil volatility, global cues and earnings.
According to him, the broader structure remains range-bound, with 24,300 on the upside and 23,800 on the downside acting as key levels, reflecting a lack of clear directional conviction.
Why Sentiment Remains Fragile
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the recent recovery attempt has faltered due to renewed tensions between the US and Iran and persistently elevated crude oil prices. He highlighted that Brent crude remains elevated in the $100–110 range, keeping inflation concerns and input cost pressures intact for an import-dependent economy like India.
He added that persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, which have crossed Rs 70,000 crore in April, continue to weigh on sentiment, even as domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provide partial support.
Nifty Prediction For Monday: Key Levels To Watch
Experts broadly agree that 24,000 remains the immediate pivot for the Nifty.
Ponmudi R said the index is trading near the 24,000–24,100 zone with a cautious bias. Immediate resistance is placed in the 24,300–24,400 range, and only a sustained move above this zone can revive momentum towards 24,600–24,800.
On the downside, he sees 23,800 as a key support. A break below this level could open the path towards 23,600-23,400.
Hariprasad K also emphasised that 23,900-23,800 remains a strong demand zone, while 24,200 is an immediate resistance level. A breakout above this could push the index towards 24,400-24,500, where heavy supply persists.
Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president (research), Religare Broking, said a decisive break below 23,800 could trigger further downside towards 23,500 and even 23,100, while 24,400–24,800 remains a strong resistance band.
Bank Nifty Remains Weak Link
Bank Nifty continues to underperform and remains a key concern for the broader market.
Ponmudi R said the index is trading near the 54,800-55,000 zone, with resistance at 55,800-56,000 and stronger hurdles at 56,800-57,000. A sustained breakout is needed for any meaningful recovery.
Hariprasad K placed key support at 54,500, warning that a break below this could trigger further downside towards 54,000.
Ajit Mishra also flagged weakness in the banking index, noting that a breach below 54,300 could extend the decline towards the 52,700-53,800 zone.
What Will Drive Markets This Week
Experts say markets will remain highly news-driven in the coming sessions. Key triggers include developments in the US-Iran situation, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, movement in crude oil prices, foreign fund flows, rupee trends and progress in the Q4 earnings season.
Hariprasad K also pointed to election outcomes as an additional domestic trigger that could influence sentiment in the near term.
Sectoral View
Ajit Mishra said pharma, IT and energy sectors showed resilience last week, while banking and financials underperformed.
Ponmudi R believes metals, energy and select domestic themes may continue to offer opportunities, while overall participation remains selective amid elevated volatility.
Read More
