El Nino’s heat test: India may face world’s biggest energy system impact

NEW DELHI: India is likely to face a greater impact on its energy system from this year’s El Nino than any other country, according to a new report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).The report said the transition from La Nina to El Nino between July 2026 and June 2027 could reduce electricity generation from wind and hydropower while sharply increasing demand for cooling as temperatures rise.El Nino is a recurring climate pattern that raises global temperatures, while La Nina is its cooler phase.According to the analysis, higher temperatures could increase electricity demand for air conditioning by around 10 terawatt-hours (TWh) over a year, equivalent to nearly one-quarter of Delhi’s annual electricity consumption.The report estimated that the combined impact of lower renewable power generation and higher electricity demand could leave India facing a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh.“Combine the lost output from renewables and the increased demand for power, and India could face a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh. Currently, the most likely outcome is a surge in coal-fired power, which would release an estimated 17 million tonnes of CO2,” the report said.It added that in the most severe scenario, additional coal-fired generation could reach 24 TWh.“In the most severe scenario, the extra coal generation reaches 24 TWh, roughly half of India’s entire increase in coal burn last year,” it said.The report described the 2026 El Nino as a warning of more frequent extreme weather events linked to climate change and said India’s ability to expand solar power and battery storage would be critical to improving the resilience of its electricity grid.“India has just endured a deadly heatwave and one of its hottest summers on record, pushing power demand to an all-time high of 270 GW. A super El Nino will raise the stakes again — putting even more strain on the grid while worsening water shortages and pressure on farming,” the report said.CREA said India should remain on track to achieve its target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel power capacity by 2030 while accelerating investments in battery storage and grid modernisation to ensure clean energy can reliably meet rising demand.The report also observed that record electricity demand is often used to justify expanding coal-fired power generation. However, it said coal plants face operational challenges in meeting changing demand patterns throughout the day.According to the analysis, around 2.1 TWh of solar and wind power was curtailed last year to keep coal-fired plants operating.The report highlighted solar energy as a more resilient option during El Nino conditions.“Solar power is playing an ever-increasing role in powering India, now meeting 24 per cent of daytime power demand. Solar generation is also far less affected by El Niño, meaning that every additional solar panel and battery that India installs helps future-proof the grid against extreme weather patterns like this one,” it said.